{
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-02T18:53:37.631Z",
  "source": "On-chain OO_V2 DisputePrice (Polygon, keyless) — markets that ENTERED a dispute at UMA within the RECENT window. It does NOT check whether the dispute already resolved (disputes resolve within days; see disputedAtIso). Cross-referenced with the historical flip rate per CATEGORY. Detection and counts are on-chain; the CATEGORY is a title heuristic. A fact, not a prediction of the outcome.",
  "windowDays": 30,
  "fromBlock": 91817448,
  "toBlock": 93113448,
  "rawLogs": 6,
  "disputesFound": 6,
  "chunksFetched": 29,
  "chunksFailed": 0,
  "failedChunkRatio": 0,
  "scanDegraded": false,
  "alertsPublished": true,
  "withheldReason": null,
  "alerts": [
    {
      "marketId": "1361028",
      "title": "Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?",
      "category": "Other",
      "disputedAtIso": "2026-08-31T15:29:45.619Z",
      "disputer": "0x52764DD44Eb51b0D21cD08E5497035f256eA7754",
      "flipRatePct": 13,
      "flipN": 368,
      "flipCiLoPct": 10,
      "flipCiHiPct": 16.9,
      "confidence": "residual",
      "note": "\"Other\" is a mixed/residual bucket (n=368 of unlike markets), so its 13% (95% CI 10–16.9%) reversal rate is a rough prior, not a coherent-category rate. On-chain fact, not a prediction of this market."
    },
    {
      "marketId": "1361023",
      "title": "Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?",
      "category": "Other",
      "disputedAtIso": "2026-08-31T15:28:41.619Z",
      "disputer": "0x52764DD44Eb51b0D21cD08E5497035f256eA7754",
      "flipRatePct": 13,
      "flipN": 368,
      "flipCiLoPct": 10,
      "flipCiHiPct": 16.9,
      "confidence": "residual",
      "note": "\"Other\" is a mixed/residual bucket (n=368 of unlike markets), so its 13% (95% CI 10–16.9%) reversal rate is a rough prior, not a coherent-category rate. On-chain fact, not a prediction of this market."
    },
    {
      "marketId": "1281165",
      "title": "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?",
      "category": "Other",
      "disputedAtIso": "2026-08-25T02:54:11.619Z",
      "disputer": "0xCA323ed4e6dd651368C754D7c5a9D345E5C81829",
      "flipRatePct": 13,
      "flipN": 368,
      "flipCiLoPct": 10,
      "flipCiHiPct": 16.9,
      "confidence": "residual",
      "note": "\"Other\" is a mixed/residual bucket (n=368 of unlike markets), so its 13% (95% CI 10–16.9%) reversal rate is a rough prior, not a coherent-category rate. On-chain fact, not a prediction of this market."
    },
    {
      "marketId": "1088688",
      "title": "Will Beatriz Haddad Maia win the 2026 Women’s US Open?",
      "category": "Other",
      "disputedAtIso": "2026-08-20T09:34:07.619Z",
      "disputer": "0xbfF43458d79aE37E87F2c9973DbcA9569706E456",
      "flipRatePct": 13,
      "flipN": 368,
      "flipCiLoPct": 10,
      "flipCiHiPct": 16.9,
      "confidence": "residual",
      "note": "\"Other\" is a mixed/residual bucket (n=368 of unlike markets), so its 13% (95% CI 10–16.9%) reversal rate is a rough prior, not a coherent-category rate. On-chain fact, not a prediction of this market."
    },
    {
      "marketId": "907514",
      "title": "Will Missy Hughes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "category": "Politics",
      "disputedAtIso": "2026-08-04T22:38:19.619Z",
      "disputer": "0x9A3fA403A6666eEf75f92F181fCF13f9C051914A",
      "flipRatePct": 6.5,
      "flipN": 77,
      "flipCiLoPct": 2.8,
      "flipCiHiPct": 14.3,
      "confidence": "measured",
      "note": "When Politics markets are disputed at UMA, the answer historically reversed 6.5% of 77 resolved disputes (95% CI 2.8–14.3%). A reversal would change the outcome; the direction depends on which side was proposed. On-chain base-rate fact, not a prediction of this market."
    },
    {
      "marketId": "907518",
      "title": "Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?",
      "category": "Politics",
      "disputedAtIso": "2026-08-04T22:30:55.619Z",
      "disputer": "0x7F56658341f1C660D9C93B01a6B087e39e84d456",
      "flipRatePct": 6.5,
      "flipN": 77,
      "flipCiLoPct": 2.8,
      "flipCiHiPct": 14.3,
      "confidence": "measured",
      "note": "When Politics markets are disputed at UMA, the answer historically reversed 6.5% of 77 resolved disputes (95% CI 2.8–14.3%). A reversal would change the outcome; the direction depends on which side was proposed. On-chain base-rate fact, not a prediction of this market."
    }
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Scan coverage is published with the data: `chunksFetched`/`chunksFailed`/`failedChunkRatio`. Above 20% failed chunks the alert list is WITHHELD rather than served as if the window had been fully scanned.",
    "Dispute = an on-chain OO_V2 DisputePrice event (the market ENTERED a dispute within the window). It is NOT 'in dispute RIGHT NOW' — most have already resolved; this version does not pair QuestionResolved. Check the AGE (disputedAtIso).",
    "flipRatePct = the HISTORICAL reversal frequency of the CATEGORY (not of this market) + a 95% Wilson CI. A reversal DOES change the outcome, but the direction depends on which side was proposed — it is NOT a prediction of the outcome nor a guaranteed loss.",
    "CATEGORY = a title heuristic (classifyByTitle), not an official taxonomy; it is the join key for the rate. 'Other' is a residual bucket (a rough prior).",
    "confidence: measured (n≥20, CI ok) · residual (Other, a mixed bucket) · insufficient (n<20 or a wide CI → directional).",
    "disputedAtIso is APPROXIMATE (derived from the block number at ~2s/block).",
    "Only disputes whose ancillaryData parses into a Polymarket market_id + title are included (the rest are omitted)."
  ]
}