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"flipInsufficientSample": false } }, { "conditionId": "0xc8b3b03b0142f77a30a918d77976b80e545fa731c5a7791f5c46dce878051006", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 7PM ET", "trades": 38, "volumeUsd": 6412.67, "uniqueTraders": 15, "authenticity": { "hhi": 0.87, "topTraderShare": 0.9338, "distinctTraders": 15, "effectiveTraders": 1, "subCentShare": 0, "nearResolutionShare": 0.9795, "bookLiquidityUsd": null, "bookLiquidity": { "status": "unmeasured", "reason": "gamma-not-hydrated" }, "spread": null, "orderbookEnabled": null, "rewardsSubsidized": null, "endDate": null, "marketClosed": null, "liveness": { "state": "unknown", "source": "not-measured" }, "apparentVsBookFlag": null, "topTrader": { "wallet": "0x0534d121d02c0d42b25518583f9bff202ad5698d", "outcome": "Up", "side": "BUY", "asset": "47693488515545326427656425448974751277709197587343817751227950625359954960274", "notionalUsd": 5988, "vwap": 0.998, "walletMarkets": 2, "onchainCounterparties": null, "counterparties": { "status": "unmeasured", "reason": "not-eligible" }, "betResolvedInFavor": null }, "bucket": "concentrated" }, "slippageOutcome": { "status": "unmeasured", "reason": "budget-exceeded" }, "reward": null, "resolutionRisk": { "category": "Crypto", "categorySource": "title-heuristic", "vendorTags": [], "categoryDisputeRatePct": 7.4, "categoryDisputeSample": "high-volume", "categoryInsufficientSample": false, "categoryElevated": false, "titleLooksCheckable": false, "categoryFlipRatePct": 22.9, "flipInsufficientSample": false } } ] }, "selection": { "policy": "live-only", "reason": "liveness-measured", "topN": 300, "candidates": 34532, "livenessMeasured": 594, "liveCandidates": 104, "resolvedExcluded": 490, "unmeasuredExcluded": 33938, "selected": 104, "liveBySource": { "vendorFlag": 104, "endDateProxy": 0 } }, "coverage": { "gamma": { "requested": 600, "hydrated": 594, "batchesAttempted": 60, "batchesFailed": 0, "invalidItems": 0 }, "onchain": { "budget": 10, "eligible": 20, "attempted": 10, "measured": 8 }, "slippage": { "budget": 40, "attempted": 40, "measured": 28, "skippedNotLive": 12 } }, "caveats": [ "ROLLING 72h window, gap-free (continuous poller, without the holes a 30-minute cron leaves). The window is fixed on purpose: the tape used to accumulate forever and the published span widened every run, so one day's number was not comparable to the previous one's. This is not the market's full backfill — that one is on-chain (OrderFilled, deferred).", "Selection is LIVE-FIRST: the published set is the highest-volume markets still reported as open, not the highest-volume markets of the window. All 104 published markets are live by the seller's own flag; the end-date fallback was not used. Of 34532 observed markets, 104 were measured live and 104 were published; 490 were excluded as resolved and 33938 because their liveness was never measured — unmeasured is never assumed open. Liveness is only measured for the candidates hydrated from Gamma, so 'never measured' is usually 'outside the hydration pool', not 'Gamma failed'; `coverage.gamma.batchesFailed` is the one that means failure.", "Per-market FLOW authenticity (R2 v1): taker concentration (effective traders = 1/HHI) + price band + Gamma context. A descriptive FACT about the window, NEVER an accusation of fraud.", "Concentration is measured across the OBSERVED TAKERS (the tape is taker-only) — a single aggressive taker can inflate it; the on-chain counterparty graph (maker+taker) is the deferred depth.", "The volume-vs-book cross-check only fires on a LIVE market (in a resolved one the book is gone because the market ended, not because it is fragile). Coverage grows as the tape accumulates (that adds coverage, not stability to any individual HHI).", "proxyWallet is the real trader, not the relayer. Fetches resolve DNS over HTTPS to get around the local DNS filter. Gamma is context (book/spread/rewards/resolution) and is best-effort.", "Tail screener: markets in the $1k-$50k band, OUTSIDE the decomposed overview set, that are ALREADY concentrated. The $1k floor is there because below it '100% one taker' is noise from a near-empty market. The tail has no on-chain counterparty (bounded cost), so it evidences taker CONCENTRATION; `structurally-thin` needs a book and only fires where the book was read.", "Liveness carries its PROVENANCE. `authenticity.liveness.source` is `gamma-closed-flag` when the seller's own `closed` flag answered, and `end-date-proxy` when it did not and we compared the scheduled end date against the window instead. The proxy is a declared fallback, never a fact: in sports the end date is the SCHEDULED end, so a settled game keeps a future end date for days.", "Absence states its cause. `authenticity.bookLiquidity`, `slippageOutcome` and `topTrader.counterparties` carry a typed reason (measured / absent / unmeasured) next to the legacy nullable field, so 'we did not measure it' can no longer be read as 'it does not exist'." ] }