{
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-02T06:53:04.919Z",
  "source": "Gamma /markets (closed) — dispute history via umaResolutionStatuses. TWO samples (volume + chronological) to expose the bias.",
  "config": {
    "scanMax": 2000,
    "minN": 25,
    "hoursPerDisputeCycle": 60,
    "degradedFailedPageRatio": 0.2
  },
  "publication": {
    "ratesPublished": true,
    "withheldReasons": []
  },
  "samples": {
    "volume": {
      "order": "volumeNum",
      "pagesFetched": 20,
      "pagesFailed": 0,
      "scanDegraded": false,
      "ratesWithheld": false,
      "withheldReason": null,
      "fetchErrors": [],
      "report": {
        "overall": {
          "marketsScanned": 1534,
          "unknownMarkets": 466,
          "totalScanned": 2000,
          "disputedMarkets": 147,
          "disputeRatePct": 9.6
        },
        "byCategory": [
          {
            "category": "Tech/Space",
            "marketsScanned": 7,
            "unknownMarkets": 0,
            "totalScanned": 7,
            "disputedMarkets": 4,
            "disputeRatePct": 57.1,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 1.14,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 69,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 120,
            "insufficientSample": true,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 7
          },
          {
            "category": "Geopolitics",
            "marketsScanned": 177,
            "unknownMarkets": 17,
            "totalScanned": 194,
            "disputedMarkets": 60,
            "disputeRatePct": 33.9,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.67,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 40,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 119,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 194
          },
          {
            "category": "Politics",
            "marketsScanned": 186,
            "unknownMarkets": 176,
            "totalScanned": 362,
            "disputedMarkets": 30,
            "disputeRatePct": 16.1,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.31,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 18,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 114,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 362
          },
          {
            "category": "Other",
            "marketsScanned": 528,
            "unknownMarkets": 122,
            "totalScanned": 650,
            "disputedMarkets": 44,
            "disputeRatePct": 8.3,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.14,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 9,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 104,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 650
          },
          {
            "category": "Crypto",
            "marketsScanned": 94,
            "unknownMarkets": 38,
            "totalScanned": 132,
            "disputedMarkets": 7,
            "disputeRatePct": 7.4,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.14,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 8,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 111,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 132
          },
          {
            "category": "Sports",
            "marketsScanned": 542,
            "unknownMarkets": 113,
            "totalScanned": 655,
            "disputedMarkets": 2,
            "disputeRatePct": 0.4,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.01,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 0,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 120,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 655
          }
        ],
        "byTitleCheckability": {
          "checkableTitle": {
            "marketsScanned": 1037,
            "disputedMarkets": 14,
            "disputeRatePct": 1.4
          },
          "uncheckableTitle": {
            "marketsScanned": 497,
            "disputedMarkets": 133,
            "disputeRatePct": 26.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "chronological": {
      "order": "endDate",
      "pagesFetched": 20,
      "pagesFailed": 0,
      "scanDegraded": false,
      "ratesWithheld": false,
      "withheldReason": null,
      "fetchErrors": [],
      "report": {
        "overall": {
          "marketsScanned": 1991,
          "unknownMarkets": 9,
          "totalScanned": 2000,
          "disputedMarkets": 16,
          "disputeRatePct": 0.8
        },
        "byCategory": [
          {
            "category": "Geopolitics",
            "marketsScanned": 30,
            "unknownMarkets": 2,
            "totalScanned": 32,
            "disputedMarkets": 3,
            "disputeRatePct": 10,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.17,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 10,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 100,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 32
          },
          {
            "category": "Tech/Space",
            "marketsScanned": 76,
            "unknownMarkets": 0,
            "totalScanned": 76,
            "disputedMarkets": 3,
            "disputeRatePct": 3.9,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.04,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 2,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 60,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 76
          },
          {
            "category": "Other",
            "marketsScanned": 802,
            "unknownMarkets": 0,
            "totalScanned": 802,
            "disputedMarkets": 5,
            "disputeRatePct": 0.6,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.01,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 1,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 96,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 802
          },
          {
            "category": "Politics",
            "marketsScanned": 179,
            "unknownMarkets": 0,
            "totalScanned": 179,
            "disputedMarkets": 1,
            "disputeRatePct": 0.6,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0.01,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 1,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 120,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 179
          },
          {
            "category": "Crypto",
            "marketsScanned": 832,
            "unknownMarkets": 7,
            "totalScanned": 839,
            "disputedMarkets": 4,
            "disputeRatePct": 0.5,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 0,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 60,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 839
          },
          {
            "category": "Sports",
            "marketsScanned": 72,
            "unknownMarkets": 0,
            "totalScanned": 72,
            "disputedMarkets": 0,
            "disputeRatePct": 0,
            "avgDisputeCycles": 0,
            "avgLockupHoursPerMarket": 0,
            "lockupHoursIfDisputed": 0,
            "insufficientSample": false,
            "categorizedFromVendorTags": 0,
            "categorizedFromTitleHeuristic": 72
          }
        ],
        "byTitleCheckability": {
          "checkableTitle": {
            "marketsScanned": 1044,
            "disputedMarkets": 5,
            "disputeRatePct": 0.5
          },
          "uncheckableTitle": {
            "marketsScanned": 947,
            "disputedMarkets": 11,
            "disputeRatePct": 1.2
          }
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "elevatedRiskCategories": [
    "Geopolitics"
  ],
  "pressContext": "DVM vote concentration (9 wallets control >50% of the UMA vote — WSJ/Bloomberg 2026): DEFERRED, cited, not recomputed (it needs Ethereum mainnet infrastructure).",
  "caveats": [
    "BASE RATE per category, NOT a prediction that THIS market will be disputed. It is the historical frequency in similar markets.",
    "The ABSOLUTE number varies ~16× with the sample (volume vs chronological) — that is why we show BOTH, and the product signal is the RELATIVE RANK per category, not the rate on its own.",
    "Category = a DECLARED keyword heuristic over the title (classifyByTitle), not Polymarket's official taxonomy.",
    "Dispute = a FACT of the UMA process (a proposal was challenged; each 'disputed' in umaResolutionStatuses), NOT fraud and NOT an accusation.",
    "unknown (no UMA data / resolved via negRisk-CLOB) is EXCLUDED from both the numerator and the denominator — it does not count as 'clean'.",
    "byTitleCheckability: whether the TITLE states a verifiable threshold (price/number/score/head-to-head) or not — a dimension ORTHOGONAL to category (it discriminates WITHIN it: e.g. Other with a threshold ~1% vs without one ~23%). Read from the TITLE; the resolution rules are NOT read. A structural FACT about the wording, not a prediction. A date ('by June 15') does NOT count as a threshold.",
    "insufficientSample (a category with < minN markets) = an unstable rate, to be displayed with the caveat attached.",
    "scanDegraded=true → >20% of the pages failed in this sample; its rates are WITHHELD (report=null), not published."
  ]
}